Springtown at Fort Worth Castleberry

# Springtown at Fort Worth Castleberry, District Showdown Fort Worth Castleberry gets the nod in our model by a razor-thin 2 points, but don't sleep on this one, because the home-field advantage only pushes the Mustangs to a 55 percent win probability, making this about as close to a true toss-up as it gets. Springtown comes in hungry, and our algorithm is basically saying flip a coin with a slight lean toward the hosts, which means the smart money might actually be on the Porcupines to pull the upset. This is the kind of district matchup where conventional wisdom and computer projections could easily part ways, so fans backing the model better have strong conviction, or they might want to fade it entirely. Either way, expect a tight battle that comes down to execution and momentum in the fourth quarter.

• AI prediction: Fort Worth Castleberry by 2 · Toss-up
• Win probability: Fort Worth Castleberry 55%, Springtown 45%
• Fort Worth Castleberry is the model's favorite; Springtown is the underdog
• District game: playoff seeding is on the line